Project description

The SiVEx Project investigates the security of supply of the future European energy system in the context of two developments. First, the transition to greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045 is driving structural changes such as the phase-out of fossil-based power generation, increasing electrification of heating and cooling and the emergence of hydrogen as a substitute for natural gas, leading to stronger interdependencies between electricity and gas systems. Second, climate change introduces increasing uncertainty through a rising probability of extreme weather events, affecting both weather-dependent renewable generation and temperature-sensitive energy demand. These developments motivate the probabilistic and system-integrated analysis pursued in this project, which evaluates security of supply in the current energy system, during the transition phase, and in a climate-neutral target system. Particular attention is paid to the occurrence probabilities and system impacts of extreme weather events.

During the transition phase, natural gas is expected to continue to play a central role in ensuring security of supply, but is eventually expected to be replaced by hydrogen. However, the availability of hydrogen depends on the development of international markets and is associated with geopolitical risks. Scarcity situations for gas and hydrogen, as seen in the winter of 2021/2022, can lead to price spikes and supply constraints affecting both the electricity and gas systems. Infrastructure challenges arise from the volatility of renewable generation and the gradual coupling and repurposing of gas and hydrogen networks.

Methodologically, the project combines probabilistic analyses with an agent-based market model and an integrated electricity and gas model. Probabilistic time series of electricity and gas demand as well as renewable generation are created based on climate projections. The market model captures operational behaviour and investment decisions of system actors, including generation and storage assets. These investment decisions provide inputs for the network model, which assesses technical feasibility through power and gas flow optimization in transmission networks. The modelling framework accounts for changing infrastructure, including the repurposing of gas infrastructure and the development of hydrogen networks.