Otello: Development of an integrated, optimizing evaluation and allocation model for national emission management

  • contact:

    Dr. Magnus Fröhling

    Dipl.-Wi-Ing. Julian Stengel

    Dipl.-Wi-Ing. Patrick Breun

  • funding:

    Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF),

    Förderkennzeichen: 01UN0603

  • partner:

    Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung (IWW)

    Lehrstuhl Verkehr und Kommunikation, KIT

    Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI)

    Lehrstuhl Ökonomie und Ökologie des Wohnungsbaus (ÖÖW), KIT

    Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit (BMU)

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In the field of air pollution control, major successes were already achieved over the last few decades. But for a number of pollutants, further efforts are still necessary to stay within the pollution limits (critical loads). For that purpose, on UNECE- and EU-level national maximum upper bounds in the form of maximum yearly emissions were established with the EG-Directive 2001/81/EG (so-called NEC-Directive). These upper bounds offer the flexibility to decide, where and how the obligatory emission reductions are realized.

In this context, the otello project developed a National Integrated-Assessment-Model (IAM) for Germany. Project result was a tool for political decision makersto assess environmental-politic instruments regarding their environmental and macroeconomic effects.

Key subject of otello were emissions of SO2, NOx, PM and CO2 in the areas industry, energy supply, transport and domestic buildings.

The developed model is simulation-based and has a modular design. It links a comprehensive, closed and dynamic input output model (IOM) with technology-based bottom-up models of the specific partial areas of industry & energy supply, residential buildings and transport.

  • In the industry submodel, the emergence of emissions is described on the level of specific plants under the assumption of multi-level technical reference processes. The development of the applied technologies is represented by an actor-based approach, which simulates the investment decisions of the specific plants.
  • In the residential building submodel, investment decisions are also represented by actor-based retrofitting of the buildings, whereby multiple decision-maker types are distinguished. The changes are fed into a residential building stock model, which calculates final energy consumption and the related emissions for Germany.
  • In the transport submodel, the traffic/transport model ASTRA is used, which simulates the development of the national vehicle fleet via cohort model. The different modes of transport road, train, sea and air are considered. 

By linking these submodels, reduction measures within as well as interactions between the different sectors can be assessed andvisualised . Furthermore, the results of the different scenarios are assessed with a multi-criteria approach, to take different political goals into account and to evaluate suitable bundles of political instruments with their associated incentives.  

Project-specific publications:

STENGEL, J. (2014): Akteursbasierte Simulation der energetischen Modernisierung des Wohngebäudebestands in Deutschland. Dissertation: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie, KIT Scientific Publishing, Karlsruhe.

STENGEL, J.; UNHOLZER, M., HIETE, M.; LÜTZKENDORF, T.; SCHULTMANN, F. (2012): Teil III. - Wohngebäude. In BREUN, P.; COMES, T.; DOLL, C.; FRÖHLING, M.; HIETE, M.; ILSEN, R.; KRAIL, M.; LÜTZKENDORF, T.; SCHULTMANN, F.; STENGEL, J.; UNHOLZER, M.: National Integrated Assessment Modelling zur Bewertung umweltpolitischer Instrumente – Entwicklung des otello-Modellsystems und dessen Anwendung auf die Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Karlsruhe: KIT Scientific Publishing, p. 225-345.

HIETE, M.; STENGEL, J.; SCHULTMANN F. (2011): Simulating energy demand and emissions of the residential building stock in Germany by taking occupant characteristics into account. In SB11 Helsinki World Sustainable Building Conference, Helsinki, 9 p.

BREUN, P.; COMES, T.; DOLL, C.; FRÖHLING, M.; HIETE, M.; ILSEN, R.; KRAIL, M.; LÜTZKENDORF, TH.; SCHULTMANN; F.; STENGEL, J.; UNHOLZER; M. (2011): otello - ein Nationales Integriertes Assessment Modell, Methodischer Ansatz und Ergebnisse, Endbericht zum Forschungsprojekt „Entwicklung eines integrierten, optimierenden Bewertungs- und Allokationsmodells für ein nationales Emissionsmanagement (otello)“ im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF), 01UN0603, 401 p.

COMES, T.; DOLL, C.; FRÖHLING, M.; HIETE, M.; ILSEN, R.; KRAIL, M.; LÜTZKENDORF, T.; SCHULTMANN, F.; STENGEL, J.; UNHOLZER, M. (2010): Challenges for national clean air policy. Ökologisches Wirtschaften, 02/2010, p. 34-37.

COMES, T.; DOLL, C.; FRÖHLING, M.; HIETE, M.; ILSEN, R.; KRAIL, M.; LÜTZKENDORF, T.; SCHULTMANN, F.; STENGEL, J.; UNHOLZER, M. (2010): Supporting Clean Air Policy in Germany – the Integrated Assessment Model otello. In International Society for Ecological Economics Conference (ISEE 2010), Oldenburg und Bremen.