The goal of the research training group is to develop practical and comprehensive knowledge of the entire scenario life cycle. So far, forecasts and scenarios differ considerably from each other. The correlations, assumptions as well as the methods used are not sufficiently transparent and there are no recognized procedures for the evaluation of scenarios. Furthermore, little is known about the perception of scenarios and their consequences in politics, economy and society.

The project investigates historical aspects of scenarios, their construction processes, evaluation methods, and the influence of the communication of scenarios on political decision-makers and the general public.