Feasibility Study on the Development of a Design for an Emission Projection Model Based on the CORINAIR-Approach
French-German Institute for Environmental Research (DFIU/IFARE)
University of Karlsruhe
Duration of the Project: 1 May to 31 July 1999
Karlsruhe, December 1999
On Behalf of the German Federal Environmental Agency
Abstract
The objective of this report is to analyse the feasibility of the development of an emission projection model for all relevant stationary and mobile sources of anthropogenic emissions. This model shall be used to fulfil reporting obligations in the frame of international programmes, to fill gaps in the elaboration of inventories, and to analyse the impact of environmental policies on future emissions.
In a first step, requirements from binding international reporting obligations as well as from reports on a voluntary basis have been reviewed. These are in particular reporting obligations under the UN/ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Oslo, Paris and Helsinki Conventions, the CORINAIR inventory programme, EUROSTAT and EU legislation. It turned out that a high level of sectoral disaggregation in both inventories and projections is requested by these reporting requirements. Therefore, the emission projection tool has to be designed on this level of detail.
With regard to the requirements mentioned above, existing models for inventories and projections have been investigated. These are in particular the COPERT/FOREMOVE model, the TREMOD model, the TRENDS model, the CollectER model, the CASPER model, the RAINS model, and the PERSEUS and ARGUS models. Among these models, CollectER and COPERT are specifically designed for emission inventorying. FOREMOVE (based on the databases included in COPERT), TREMOD and TRENDS focus on projections for mobile source emissions. RAINS is an integrated assessment model which has been used for the elaboration of multi-pollutant and multi-effect strategies on UN/ECE and EU level. PERSEUS and ARGUS are energy and mass flow optimisation models referring to the analysis of emission reduction strategies (SO2, NOx, CO2, VOC) at the national level. It appeared that projection tools for emissions from mobile source have achieved a high status of sophistication, and can thus be further used in an overall model. Concerning stationary sources, a considerable amount of information is already available from existing tools (e. g. the models for environmental strategy development).
Concerning the development of a new projection tool, the following requirements have been identified:
§ The model should be basically designed for the use in individual countries by e. g. experts compiling national inventories.
§ It should consider, as far as possible, existing projection tools and methodologies.
§ It should be possible to elaborate both short term and long term emission projections.
§ The model should allow the analysis of the impact of environmental policies on future emissions, in particular the impact of environmental legislation. This requests in many cases a high sectoral resolution of the model down to installation/process level.
The proposed model design is based on the CORINAIR methodology, using the emission factor approach.
The emission factors and the efficiency of abatement options are specified for so-called reference installations which allow to account for emission relevant factors on the process or installation level. The reference installations and the corresponding emission reduction options are used to characterise the country specific emission source structure of a given country. This structure (production and energy conversion processes) is characterised in terms of sectoral activity rates, market shares of reference installations and implementation shares of the emission reduction options. The proposed approach allows for clear differentiation of "technological data" (emission factors and efficiencies of abatement techniques) and country specific data. The use of the same set of reference installations with the same characteristics ensures the consistency and comparability of the input data and of the projections between different countries. Verification and quality control of results is then possible. In a further step, the model could thus be used for application onto a group of countries such as the European Union, e. g. by international organisations.
Forecasts of activity rates are performed on different levels of aggregation by projecting past activity rates to the future via an adequate projection procedure and baseline parameters (population, GDP, etc.) for correlation. Changes in the structure of the emission sources and the status of implementation of emission reduction options due e. g. to autonomous technology change or to the implementation of legislative requirements are described in terms of changes in market shares of reference installations and implementation shares of the emission reduction options, specified exogenenously.
In order to provide a user friendly tool, scenarios for short and long term projections will be predefined reflecting
e.g. autonomous technological progress, current legislation, and application of best available techniques/practice.
The objective of this project was to analyse the feasibility of the development of an emission projection model for all relevant stationary and mobile sources of anthropogenic emissions. This model shall be used to fulfil reporting obligations in the frame of international programmes, to fill gaps in the elaboration of inventories, and to analyse the impact of environmental policies on future emissions. For this purpose, requirements from binding international reporting obligations (e. g. under the UN/ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) as well as from reports on a voluntary basis (e. g. the CORINAIR inventory programme) have been reviewed. A model concept, taking into consideration these requirements, has been developed and discussed at an international workshop.
Keywords
Emission inventory, emission projection, model, international commitments, reporting obligation, CORINAIR
Report
O. Rentz, S. Nunge, U. Karl, T. Holtmann, T. Zundel: Feasibility Study on the Development of a Design for an Emission Projection Model Based on the CORINAIR-Approach, Final report, December 1999
Workshop
An international workshop has been held in Karlsruhe November 19, 1999.
1 Background
The fulfilment of environmental targets such as the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, air quality standards and critical loads/levels for acidification, eutrophication and tropospheric ozone requires the implementation of more and more stringent emission abatement options with an increasing economic impact. In this context, the cost-effectiveness of measures and the achievement of environmental targets are major criteria for the evaluation of abatement strategies. Key elements in the development of any strategy are besides the cost aspects, the availability of reliable and consistent emission inventories and projections. Mid- and long-term projections are used to analyse the future development of emissions and, in particular, to assess the influence of any emission reduction strategy or environmental legislation (e. g. emission limits for certain categories of plants) on this development. Emission projections are requested by the UN-Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, the OSPAR Convention, etc. Furthermore, short-term projections can be used to complete emission inventories in the frame of these reporting obligations.
A variety of emission projection models has been developed in different countries covering mobile and stationary sources. On the international level, the emission forecasting model COPERT/FOREMOVE for road transport is in use and the model TRENDS covering all mobile sources is under development. However a similar tool for stationary sources is still missing. An European wide harmonised projection model covering all relevant pollutants and sources is urgently needed for the elaboration of emission reduction strategies on the multinational level
(e. g. Clean Air Program of the European Union, Protocols in the frame of the UN/ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution).
In this context, the German Federal Environmental Agency (UBA) commissioned the French German Institute for Environmental Research to perform a feasibility study concerning the design of a projection model which should fulfil the following requirements:
- be applicable as far as possible to all European countries including countries in transition and provide consistent and comparable results,
- cover the pollutants and sectors used by the CORINAIR methodology and its source nomenclature,
- enable for the representation of international agreements, environmental legislation
(e. g. legislation setting emission limit values for given source categories) and emission reduction technologies (e. g. Best Available Techniques) as well as structural changes (e. g. change of fuel or technology mix),
- be flexible with regard to sectoral aggregation and temporal and spatial resolution according to the layout of international reporting obligations, the availability of input data, the required accuracy, etc.,
- provide an input to strategic models e. g. integrated assessment models (such as the RAINS model).
In order to avoid duplicate work and to improve acceptance on international level, the model should rely on and integrate as much as possible available databases and methodologies. Guidance should be given regarding the projection of activity rates in terms of correlation with adequate parameters.
Several studies on air emission projections have been performed in the past years by CITEPA (Centre Interprofessionnel Technique d’Etudes de la Pollution Atmosphérique) for the French Ministry of Environment and other official organisations. Significant experience has been gained and methodologies and tools have been developed for short and medium term projections (typically 1 to 5 years) and are in progress for long term projections (10 to 20 years).
As the studies by IFARE and CITEPA mentioned above aimed at contributing to the elaboration of a consistent projection model on the multinational level, it has been decided to present and discuss the results at this Workshop organised jointly.
2 Objective
The objective of the workshop was to analyse the state of the art of existing models for emission projections of air pollutants and to discuss the layout of a possible tool satisfying current requirements of various international reporting obligations, in particular with respect to the need for European wide harmonisation.
3 Minutes of the Workshop on Emission Projection Methodologies
1. The Workshop on Emission Projection Methodologies addressing national and international experts and dealing with emission inventories and projections was held in Karlsruhe (Germany), November 19, 1999. The aim of this workshop was to analyse the state of the art of existing models for emission projections of air pollutants and to discuss the layout of a possible tool satisfying current requirements of various international reporting obligations, in particular with respect to the need for European wide harmonisation.
2. The Workshop was attended by representatives of the following organisations: AEA Technology, ANPA, Atmoterm Ltd., CITEPA, Czech Energy Efficiency Center, Danmarks Statistik, ECONOTEC, ENEA, European Topic Centre on Air Emissions (ETC/AE), FAL, IFARE, IFEU, IIASA, LAT, NERI, TNO, Umweltbundesamt Berlin (UBA). A list of participants is attached. The meeting was chaired by Mr. R. Beckers (UBA Berlin).
3. The representative of UBA Berlin introduced into the activities lead by Germany in the field of emission projections, especially the research project funded by UBA Berlin and performed by IFARE, consisting in a feasibility study for the development of a design for an emission projection model. A representative of the European Topic Centre on Air Emissions (ETC/AE) reported on the activities of the ETC/AE to support countries to comply with international reporting obligations (software tools, guidelines, direct assistance).
4. The experiences and expectations on emission projection models from the user point of view were reviewed by a representative of IIASA and presented on the example of the RAINS model.
5. IFARE presented the results of the project performed on behalf of UBA Berlin, especially the concept for the design of a harmonised model for emission projections in European countries, taking into consideration the requirements set by international reporting obligations and as far as possible existing tools and methodologies. Furthermore, the French situation in this field was reviewed by a representative of CITEPA, especially concerning the development of the emission projection models PROSPER for both the short (“N+1” and “N+5” versions) and long-term projections.
6. Further presentations dedicated to the experiences in the development and use of models for the projection of emissions from mobile sources were made, exemplarily for the models TREMOD (IFEU) and FOREMOVE (LAT). The model concept “ProjectER”, was presented by a representative of TNO.
7. The afternoon session was dedicated to the presentation on PC of the following software tools for emission projections: TREMOD, PROSPER, RAINS and CASPER. This made clear that key elements of emission projection methodologies are already implemented.
8. An important point of discussion raised concerned the adequate level of detail of such a model: aggregated models for non-experts (e. g. on a political/decisional level) versus detailed models for experts (e. g. experts compiling national emission inventories and projections). The needs of different users could be fulfilled by different emission projection models, resulting in the availability of “complementary” models for compliance with the requirements set by the whole spectrum of reporting obligations. As an alternative, an “overall” model could consist of “complementary” submodules from existing models/tools or to be developed.
9. The cost issue should not be linked to a specific emission projection model. Models dedicated to the cost-effective allocation of emission reduction options (e. g RAINS, PERSEUS, ARGUS) could be associated to specific emission projection models. The mass flow models could use emission projections from specific emission projection models as exogenous input data, and the specific emission projection models could in turn use results (e. g. evolution of the market penetration of technologies and abatement techniques) from the mass flow models.
10. In the line of the discussion of a European-wide used emission projection model, the question of the harmonisation with models developed and used in individual countries was raised: the consistency and comparability of emission data between countries should be ensured. A first step in that sense could be a harmonisation of the methodologies.
11. A further issue concerned the transparency of methodologies and models. Transparency can only be ensured by an approach on a low level of aggregation (on installation/process level) in order to allow for verification of input data by e. g. plant operators and associations of industrials.
12. If the development of a European-wide harmonised projection tool is assumed, the way how to make it available is still open. A first step could consist in the development of such a tool for one or two countries (basis version), and in a second step to try to fill in the databases for other countries. However, the lack of data and knowledge of the situations, especially in Central and Eastern European countries, could lead to some difficulties in the second step. Therefore, a solution could consist in the implementation of the basis version by national teams.
Contact
Ing. Chim. Sandrine Nunge
Tel. +49 721 608-4459 Fax +49 721 758909 E-mail: sandrine nunge ∂does-not-exist.wiwi uni-karlsruhe de